Dare to dream - Will Nottingham Forest reach the Champions League?
The Past
To anybody growing up in a Nottingham Forest supporting family with relatives who are old enough to remember, you will be used to hearing about the great European nights at the City Ground. As the stories go, Forest were twice crowned as the kings of Europe in 1979 and 1980 under the stewardship of Brian Clough and Peter Taylor.
Forest’s third European cup campaign came to a swift halt in the season following their second European final win at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium, as they went out at the first hurdle to Bulgarian outfit CSKA Sofia. The two triumphs are a huge part of the clubs identity with Forest fans rightly still clinging to them and club legend John McGovern who captained the side and lifted the trophy twice, still holding a role at the club today as an ambassador. Johnny Owen’s documentary ‘I believe in miracles’ was produced in 2015 and tells the story of that Forest side and it does a great job of capturing the feeling of the time and how truly significant it was.
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
The 1983/84 season saw Forest return to Europe, this time in the shape of the UEFA Cup, where they made it all the way to the semi finals only to be controversially beaten by RSC Anderlecht. In that semi final, Anderlecht were awarded a penalty and a Forest goal was disallowed as the Belgian side overturned a 2-0 deficit from the first leg to win 3-2 on aggregate. It was later uncovered in 1997 that the referee Emilio Guruceta Muro, accepted a £27,000 bribe from the Anderlecht chairman.
Forest’s last appearance in Europe came in the 1995/96 season after an unexpected third place finish in the previous season during Frank Clark’s reign saw them qualify for the UEFA Cup once again. The last tie that Forest played in Europe was a quarter final against Bayern Munich. The first leg took place at the Olympistadion in Munich and they lost 2-1 to a Bayern Munich side that featured Jurgen Klinsmann, with Stuart Pearce and Alf-Inge Haaland starring in the Forest line up. The second leg at the City Ground ended 5-1 despite Forest dominating the first thirty minutes of the game. Forest fans have dreamt about a return ever since that UEFA Cup exit, and 28 years on Nuno Espirito Santo’s side may be turning that dream into a reality.
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
The Present
Forest fans went into this season ranked as the ‘most optimistic’ set of supporters according to the results of The Athletic’s hope-o-meter survey that was undertaken by readers of the site. Many people outside of Nottingham who aren’t connected to our fanbase may have raised a few eyebrows at the perceived groundless positivity. The 2023/24 campaign was a largely uninspiring one for the fans, with some good moments thrown in against a backdrop of mediocrity. What had changed so significantly to warrant so much hope and belief?
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
Those who were paying close attention to Nuno’s tactics in the second half of last season would have noticed the early foundations of what has now come to be a highly functioning Premier League team. You could see how he wanted us to be a devastating counter-attacking team, with Elanga and Hudson-Odoi showing real promise and Chris Wood beginning to find some form. What was seriously lacking though was a strong defensive backbone that Nuno demands and most importantly, momentum that is bought about by consistency and a winning mentality. That is what has changed, we have found a backbone and a winning mentality and that has been the key ingredient to our success this season.
I think what has been a huge surprise to everyone, including even the most optimistic of Forest fans, is how quickly our rise up the table has happened. Most sane Forest supporters would have agreed that a 10th place finish would have resembled an outstanding season, considering that we finished 16th & then 17th in our first two seasons back in the league since being promoted. No one in their wildest dreams would have expected Forest to be sat in third at this stage with just ten games remaining. Now the question on everyone’s lips is: ‘which European competition will we be in next season?’
As well as a successful league campaign, Nuno has also managed to take Forest into the quarter finals of the FA Cup after they beat Ipswich Town in a nail-biting shoot out last Monday night in a game which we were in attendance for. Forest are now just one game away from reaching an FA Cup semi final at Wembley. In the celebrations following the shootout win, Nuno was visibly delighted as he celebrated the win right infront of us by jumping onto Ola Aina’s back. That moment really captures the feeling of togetherness that is running through the club at the moment. Winning that tie on penalties was also important in giving Forest some much needed momentum going into the Premier League fixture against Man City, as recent results in the league hadn’t been great with Forest coming through a hard set of fixtures and suffering two defeats to Fulham and Newcastle before playing out a hard fought goalless draw against Arsenal.
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
Taking on Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City team at the City Ground provided an opportunity for Forest to widen the cushion between themselves and the teams outside of the top four. It was a classic example of a six pointer as a City win would’ve seen them leapfrog Forest into third as they trailed by just a point going into the fixture. Remarkably, Nuno’s side finished 59 points behind Pep’s City team last season, as they strolled to their fourth consecutive Premier League crown while Forest fought out a relegation battle. What a difference a year makes, now Forest are the team on the rise as Pep’s City are seemingly crumbling.
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
The result was hugely symbolic as the Reds claimed yet another historic victory by the banks of the trent, a 1-0 win thanks to a Callum Hudson-Odoi goal and an outrageous assist from Morgan Gibbs-White who played one of the best cross field passes that I’ve seen all season. Hudson-Odoi has scored two crucial goals now this season, netting the winner against Liverpool at Anfield and now adding to that by scoring the goal that sealed the win against City. The three points put Forest into a strong position going into the final ten games of the season, giving the entire fanbase a firm belief that we can do it.
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
The Future
The next ten games will decide Nottingham Forest’s fate for next season. All Forest fans are invested, but match going supporters in particular will feel a sense of excitement mixed with nervousness as we approach the run in to the end of the season. For Forest fans of the younger generation (under 40’s), Champions League nights at the City Ground have only ever been a pipe dream, something that we thought we would only ever be able to witness on a video game. Now, thanks to what Nuno’s team have achieved, we are so close to getting the chance to experience watching our team playing in Europe’s elite competition first hand.
It would take a dramatic drop off now for Forest to finish completely outside of the European places with the number of total spaces still in contention based on how well the remaining English teams perform in Europe. At worst, 7th place would be the lowest that Forest could finish and still qualify for European football which in that eventuality would be in the form of the UEFA Conference League. We currently have a five point cushion over Brighton in 7th and we should feel confident that we can definitely finish higher than that, considering the position that we are currently in, the points cushion and the way that the fixtures fall.
The win against Pep’s side at the City Ground means that Forest are now four ahead of Man City who sit in fifth spot. Fifth could be enough to secure Champions League football if England are awarded the extra Champions League place through the UEFA coeffecient system, but Forest will be keen to ensure that they don’t have to rely on that being the case. Forest fans have been telling themselves all season that Europa League qualification would still be a fantastic achievement, and of course it would be. However, at this stage given the opportunity that we have, the Champions League is the priority. Another thing in Forest’s favour is that they statistically have the ‘easiest’ run in. While no game in the Premier League should be deemed as easy, Forest have performed well this season against the teams in the lower half of the table, and 8 out of 10 of their final fixtures are against teams in the bottom half. While many Forest fans still have nightmares about the run in at the end of the dreaded 2019/20 season, this feels very different to that.
We had a look at Forest’s last ten fixtures and gave our predictions for the end of season run in. Last season, 68 points was enough for fourth placed Aston Villa to secure Champions League football so we’ll use that as our baseline parameter.
Predictions
Joe - Forest fan
Ipswich (A) W
Manchester United (H) W
Aston Villa (A) L
Everton (H) D
Tottenham (A) D
Brentford (H) W
Crystal Palace (A) L
Leicester City (H) W
West Ham (A) W
Chelsea (H) W
Points tally = 71
Dan - Forest fan
Ipswich (A) W
Manchester United (H) W
Aston Villa (A) L
Everton (H) W
Tottenham (A) D
Brentford (H) W
Crystal Palace (A) D
Leicester City (H) W
West Ham (A) W
Chelsea (H) W
Points tally = 74
Sam - Forest fan
Ipswich (A) W
Manchester United (H) D
Aston Villa (A) L
Everton (H) L
Tottenham (A) D
Brentford (H) W
Crystal Palace (A) W
Leicester City (H) W
West Ham (A) D
Chelsea (H) W
Points tally = 69
Tommy - Leicester fan
Ipswich (A) W
Manchester United (H) D
Aston Villa (A) W
Everton (H) D
Tottenham (A) L
Brentford (H) D
Crystal Palace (A) L
Leicester City (H) W
West Ham (A) D
Chelsea (H) L
Points tally = 64 points
Based on the first three set of predictions for the remaining fixtures, Forest would have secured enough points to make the top 4 if we’re going by the number of points required last season. According to the final set of predictions Forest would miss out by four points, and Tommy did add that he thinks Forest will miss out on the final day of the season. It’s important to note that me, Sam and Dan are all Forest fans and Tommy is a Leicester fan, so we all have natural biases either way. The truth may lie somewhere in the middle.
Alongside this, Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle, Brighton and Aston Villa all have to play more teams in the top half of the table than Forest do. Aston Villa and Chelsea have to each play five teams who occupy the top ten positions in the Premier League in their remaining fixtures, while City and Newcastle have four, Brighton have three and Forest only have to play two of the top ten sides.
The signs look positive for Forest fans and we have the right to feel confident. The reason why we are in this position is because the team have been consistently excellent throughout the season. However, as everyone should know, football can always throw up surprises. Momentum is key and it can shift very quickly. It is not a done deal yet, but everyone is filled with excitement and anticipation going into the final run in, amongst the nerves we should all aim to enjoy it as much as possible as we watch how the end of our most successful season in over 25 years draws to its final conclusion.
Written by Joe Horne
Photography courtesy of James Armstrong (IG: @james_a_armstrong)
